Will there be a recovery in 2024? | Sheila Long O’Mara

No one can claim that 2023 will be a difficult year for the mattress industry. We’ve seen many ups and downs, and as we enter the fall selling season, the spigot suddenly closes.

Some say the dramatic cessation of the drip began in August; for others, September was the cliff edge, and a few held out until October, when business came to an abrupt halt.

The industry’s publicly traded companies — Tempur Sealy International, Purple Innovation and Sleep Number — referenced the almost immediate slowdown in earnings reports. For example, Sleep Number’s third quarter showed a significant decline, and the company announced it was removing 500 employees (10% of its employment) from payroll and closing up to 50 stores by the end of 2025.

This is tough news, but overall the industry isn’t far behind these companies, which have to share certain numbers every quarter. They give us a clear view of trends in the industry.

In recent months, some bedding executives have suggested that the economic definition of a recession (a country’s gross domestic product decreasing in two consecutive quarters) may not be accurate, but elaborating on the industry, can He says he’s in a recession. At least it looks like it.

Last year, there was a positive growth in the units shipped in the domestic mattress market. 2020. According to the report, the category recorded a 7% increase in shipments that year. International Sleep Products Assn.. From there, we’ve seen declines in shipments ranging from a low of 2.7% in 2021 to a high of 14.7% in 2022.

ISPA predicts a further 12% decline this year as we wrap up 2023; This will stabilize shipments of beds and foundation units at 41.3 million.

If 2023 ends with this 12% decline, this would be worse than the sector’s performance in 2008, when it recorded an 11.9% decline.

We all — at least most of us — remember where the economy was in 2008 and 2009 when the housing bubble burst and plunged us into the great recession. It was slow, slow and difficult to recover from this situation, but the industry slowly and steadily recovered thanks to home sales supported by low interest rates.

Although the industry would like to see a dramatic recovery in 2024, I’m not sure. Note that I am not an economist; I don’t act on television either. But we’re already seeing backbiting during presidential election season, and it’s only going to get louder and uglier in the new year and as we get closer to November.

Advertising becomes difficult and expensive as inventory is gobbled up by candidates insulting each other. All the noise also affects the consumer’s psychology, often sending them into a deeper hibernation.

Even waiting; 2025 is coming. It will take us some time to get there.

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